高烈度地震区隧道软硬围岩交接段刚柔并济抗减震技术研究*

为提高高烈度地震区隧道抗震性能，以某铁路隧道为研究背景，分析3种抗减震措施下隧道不同监测点隧道拱顶沉降、边墙收敛、衬砌结构PGA及最小安全系数，通过对比分析得到最优抗减震措施。结果表明:相比于工况1，工况2隧道拱顶沉降减小10.54%~81.10%，边墙收敛减小13.92%~78.77%，衬砌结构PGA减小31.42%~72.02%，最小安全系数增加18.04%~66.13%；相比于工况1，工况3结构拱顶沉降减小3.04%~18.02%，边墙收敛减小4.70%~32.00%，PGA增加13.95%~27.48%，最小安全系数增加7.49%~30.99%；工况4即“减震层+SFRC衬砌”刚柔并济法，相比于工况1，隧道拱顶沉降减小18.46%~83.98%，结构边墙收敛减小17.54%~85.47%，PGA减小30.00%~69.98%，最小安全系数增加47.95%~83.56%；4种工况抗减震性能由高到低依次为:工况4＞工况2＞工况3＞工况1。研究结果可为隧道软硬围岩交接段抗震设防提供理论参考。     

Spatial analysis of resources and environmental carrying capacity in Iran

Urbanization and mass movement of the population from rural areas and small cities to megacities have led to environmental, economic, and social problems in Iran. In dealing with these challenges, assessing resource and environmental carrying capacity (RECC) is considered an effective method to leverage space and capital to achieve sustainable development. This study aimed to rank the provincial RECC in Iran. Toward this purpose, environmental indices were generated from remotely sensed and statistical census data. Then, the provinces were scored in terms of environmental, economic, and infrastructural carrying capacities, and RECC using the mean variance analysis method. Results demonstrated that in most areas, there is no relationship between economic and infrastructural capacities and development. Statistically, a correlation coefficient of −0.53 between economic and environmental carrying capacities indicated excessive use of environmental capacities. Moreover, the spatial distribution pattern of environmental, economic, and infrastructural carrying capacity was entirely heterogeneous between the provinces; there was a northeast–southwest pattern in terms of infrastructural capacity and an economic pattern from north to south. The distribution pattern of RECC is most consistent with the environmental capacity, pointing at the high weight of the indicators of the RECC model. In conclusion, this research offers a new vision for policymakers and provides a theoretical and applicable framework for implementing sustainable strategies in land-use planning. It is recommended that the RECC concept and tools can be used not only for planning but also for measuring the efficiency of spatial development programs and establishing land balances in the region.     

Temporal trends in agricultural water use and the relationships to hydroclimatic factors in the High Plains aquifer region

The High Plains aquifer (HPA) is the primary water source for agricultural irrigation in the US Great Plains. The water levels in many locations of the aquifer have declined steadily over the past several decades because the rate of water withdrawals exceeds recharge, which has been a serious concern to the water resources management in the region. We evaluated temporal trends and variations in agricultural water use and hydroclimatic variables including precipitation, air temperature, reference evapotranspiration, runoff, groundwater level, and terrestrial water storage across the HPA region for different periods from 1985 to 2020 at the grid, county, or region scale. The results showed that water withdrawals decreased from 21.3 km³/year in 1985 to 18.2 km³/year in 2015, while irrigated croplands increased from 71,928 km² in 1985 to 78,464 km² in 2015 in the entire HPA. The hydroclimatic time-series showed wetting trends in most of the northern HPA, but drying and warming trends in the southern region from 1985 to 2020. The groundwater level time-series indicated flat trends in the north, but significant declining in the central and southern HPA. Trends in irrigation water withdrawals and irrigation area across the HPA were controlled by the advancement of irrigation systems and technologies and the management of sustainable water use, but also were affected by dynamical changes in the hydroclimatic conditions.     

A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.     

A proactive process risk assessment approach based on job hazard analysis and resilient engineering

Complex systems often experience a long period of incubation before accidents occur. Therefore, a proactive risk assessment is essential for process safety. The conventional job hazard analysis (JHA) method has been an effective tool to conduct a process risk assessment in the high-risk industrial field. However, the conventional JHA is inadequate for the proactive risk assessment since it is usually conducted during and before one specific operation process. Operations such as startup and maintenance are performed repeatedly on the lifecycle of a plant. Therefore, the risk reduction measures for the industrial process should include not only preventive actions obtained from the conventional JHA but also recovery ones. Resilience engineering (RE) has proven to be helpful for the recovery analysis of a complex system. The objective of this paper is to propose a proactive and comprehensive process risk assessment approach based on JHA and RE. The mechanism of applying RE to address operation process risk is illustrated. The integrated approach can provide guidelines to establish proactive risk reduction measures as well as maintain a low-risk level. Finally, a gas transmission startup process risk assessment case is presented to demonstrate its applicability.     

Critical review for the quantification of leachate production: Evaluation example for the “Oum Azza” public landfill in Rabat city,Morocco

The estimation of leachate quantities produced in landfills is necessary to dimension the treatment plants allowing to reduce the polluting load of these effluents and consequently avoid their negative impacts on the environment. Different leachate quantification methods were used in this study to assess the leachate volume produced at the Oum Azza landfill. The water balance method give comparable estimations of leachate production to the Ouled Berjal landfill ratio. The first method showed average values between 487 and 495 m³/day for 2015, 2018, and 2019, and at the same time, the second method gave values between 470 and 477 m³/day for the same years. In contrast, the World Bank ratio showed high values that vary between 2260 and 2295 m³/day for 2015, 2018, and 2019. The on-site data and the statistical analysis showed us that the World Bank ratio is not adapted for the estimation of the leachates produced in Oum Azza landfill, while the water balance and the ratio of Ouled Berjal landfill allowed to give comparable results to reality.     

A new prediction method of industrial atmospheric pollutant emission intensity based on pollutant emission standard quantification

● Established a quantification method of pollutant emission standard. ● Predicted the SO₂ emission intensity of single coking enterprises in China. ● Evaluated the influence of pollutant discharge standard on prediction accuracy. ● Analyzed the SO₂ emissions of Chinese provincial and municipal coking enterprises. Industrial emissions are the main source of atmospheric pollutants in China. Accurate and reasonable prediction of the emission of atmospheric pollutants from single enterprise can determine the exact source of atmospheric pollutants and control atmospheric pollution precisely. Based on China’s coking enterprises in 2020, we proposed a quantitative method for pollutant emission standards and introduced the quantification results of pollutant emission standards (QRPES) into the construction of support vector regression (SVR) and random forest regression (RFR) prediction methods for SO₂ emission of coking enterprises in China. The results show that, affected by the types of coke ovens and regions, China’s current coking enterprises have implemented a total of 21 emission standards, with marked differences. After adding QRPES, it was found that the root mean squared error (RMSE) of SVR and RFR decreased from 0.055 kt/a and 0.059 kt/a to 0.045 kt/a and 0.039 kt/a, and theR² increased from 0.890 and 0.881 to 0.926 and 0.945, respectively. This shows that the QRPES can greatly improve the prediction accuracy, and the SO₂ emissions of each enterprise are highly correlated with the strictness of standards. The predicted result shows that 45% of SO₂ emissions from Chinese coking enterprises are concentrated in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Hebei provinces in central China. The method created in this paper fills in the blank of forecasting method of air pollutant emission intensity of single enterprise and is of great help to the accurate control of air pollutants.     

我国居住建筑室内PM_(2.5)研究现状及进展

分析了我国居住建筑室内PM_(2.5)污染水平,总结了现阶段PM_(2.5)的研究方法,主要包括理论分析法、数值模拟法和实验测试法。指出室外源是室内PM_(2.5)的主要污染来源,而室内烟草烟雾、烹饪及人员活动也会严重影响室内PM_(2.5)浓度。针对目前研究中存在的问题,提出了标定典型建筑在不同影响因素下的I/O比范围、研究家具和家电的颗粒物释放状况、加强农村室内外空气颗粒物污染调查等建议。     

Depoliticizing adaptation: a critical analysis of EU climate adaptation policy

The ways in which climate adaptation is understood in the European Union is examined via three key policy documents: the Strategy on adaptation and the Green and White Papers that preceded it. Drawing on Poststructuralist Discourse Theory, light is shed on the implicit values and assumptions that underpin this recent policy initiative. The findings demonstrate a tension between the declared ambition to act on adaptation and implicit suggestions that nothing really has to change, and the challenge can be addressed by market and technological innovations, and by mainstreaming adaptation into existing sectoral policies. The policy discourse effectively serves to depoliticize choices societies make in response to climate change, presenting adaptation as a non-political issue. Insight into European adaptation discourse enables deeper understanding of recent policy developments and opens up possible entry points for critique.     

Difference in the net value of ecological services between natural and artificial forests in China

Land degradation is a global problem that seriously threatens human society. However, in China and elsewhere, ecological restoration still largely relies on a traditional approach that focuses only on ecological factors and ignores socioeconomic factors. To improve the effectiveness of ecological restoration and maximize its economic and ecological benefits, a more efficient approach is needed that provides support for policy development and land management and thereby promotes environmental conservation. We devised a framework for assessing the value of ecosystem services that remain after subtracting costs, such as the opportunity costs, costs of forest protection, and costs for the people who are affected by the program; that is, the net value of ecosystem services (NVES). To understand the difference between the value of a resource and the net value of the ecosystem service it provides, we used data on VES, timber sales, and afforestation costs from China's massive national afforestation programs to calculate the net value of forest ecosystem services in China. Accounting for the abovementioned costs revealed an NVES of ¥6.1 × 10¹² for forests in 2014, which was 35.9% less than the value calculated without accounting for costs. As a result, the NVES associated with afforestation was 55.9% less than the NVES of natural forests. In some regions, NVES was negative because of the huge costs of human-made plantations, high evapotranspiration rates (thus, high water opportunity costs), and low forest survival rates. To maximize the ecological benefits of conservation, it is necessary to account for as many costs as possible so that management decisions can be based on NVES, thereby helping managers choose projects that maximize both economic and ecological benefits.